NOAA’S HURRICANE PREDICTIONS FOR 2024

Hurricane season starts June 1 and NOAA’s latest forecasts shed light on what we can expect for the 2024 season. In the central Pacific, NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center anticipate a below-average season, projecting 1–4 tropical cyclones. La Nina’s expected arrival this summer plays a significant role, typically dampening storm activity due to increased wind shear.

While these forecasts offer guidance for the central Pacific, they don’t predict specific impacts on regions like Hawaii. However, Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, stresses the importance of preparedness, emphasizing the potential impact hurricanes can have on communities.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic basin, NOAA forecasts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season. Predictions suggest 17 to 25 named storms, of which 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Factors contributing to this outlook include warm ocean temperatures, the development of La Nina conditions, and reduced wind shear.

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad underscores the agency’s commitment to providing life-saving information amid these forecasts, highlighting proactive measures such as AI-enabled language translations and improved forecasts for inland wind threats. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks stresses the importance of proactive preparation in the face of increasingly challenging climate conditions.

As NOAA scientists anticipate the transition to La Nina conditions in the Atlantic, they warn of conducive factors for hurricane activity, including warm oceanic temperatures and reduced wind shear. Additionally, an above-normal west African monsoon could seed stronger Atlantic storms, while human-induced climate change exacerbates risks like sea level rise and storm surge.

In light of these forecasts, proactive preparation and mitigation efforts remain paramount for both the central Pacific and Atlantic regions. By staying informed, developing emergency plans, and bolstering resilience, communities can better weather the challenges posed by the upcoming hurricane season.